PRO Predictor predicts the outcome of each week’s NFL games: it tells you who is going to win each game, by how many points, and the approximate score. Over the last eight years, it has had an accuracy rate of 65-75 percent in predicting the weekly winners. It can also project ahead and tell you who is most likely to make the play-offs and who’ll win the Super Bowl!
But, perhaps its best feature is its record keeping. It keeps a myriad of statistics for each team, each division, each conference, and the entire league. The statistics can come in handy for fine tuning your weekly picks. Also, it will give you the regular season standings for any given week, which show not only the won-lost records but how each team is doing at home as opposed to on the road, its record for the last three (or more) weeks and if it is on a winning or losing streak. It will do the same for the play-off standings, which include each team’s record in its division, its conference, and the other stats needed to determine which teams make the play-offs.
Its individual team records include each team’s schedule and another called team stats. The team schedule includes not only the actual schedule but a host of other information, such as the difficulty of its schedule, its record against the teams on its schedule, etc.. The team stats focus on the team’s won-lost records, both current and past, and its record over the past years against the other teams in the league.
All you have to do is enter the scores each week. It does all the rest.
I've tried to make Pro Predictor as easy to use as possible. It uses the standard Mac interface, which means that for the most part the routines you'll be using need no further explanation. However, some may be a bit confusing or there may be some features you could overlook. So, you should read the other chapters in this short manual to insure you're using all the features of Pro Predictor.
Use PRO Predictor as you like. However, there are no guarantees, either implied or otherwise, that Pro Predictor is for anything other than your amusement.
PRO Predictor is a shareware application. Try it out and if you like it, send $25 to register to:
R. Scott Smith
15928 Devonshire St.
Granada Hills, CA 91344
Be sure to include your name and address so I can send you the latest registered user's version which includes several additional features, including a “Vegas Odds” module for betting against the odds. I will also send you archive files that date all the way back to 1970. And, of course, as a registered user you will receive any updates as they become available. I would also appreciate any comments or suggestions for improving PRO Predictor.
• Place Pro Predictor and it’s files on a hard disk, if you have one. Be sure to include the PRO Data files for 1987-1992.
PRO Predictor is disk intensive and will run considerably faster on a hard disk. Although Pro Predictor needs only one file to operate, without the archive files, it will be severely limited in the statistical information it can give you.
• Keep all of the PRO data files in the same folder.
Pro Predictor will utilize only those files that are together. If Pro Predictor is located in the same folder with the data files, it will automatically open to the latest year. Otherwise, it will display the standard File Open dialog box for you to locate and choose the file you want opened.
• Do not change the names of any of the PRO data files.
Pro Predictor uses the names as if they were a part of the data. It will not load a file that is not entitled either “PRO” and a year or “Projection” and a year (PRO 1991, PRO 1990, Projection 1991, for example).
• Run PRO Predictor
When PRO Predictor is up and running, it first searches for its data files so that it knows what is the first year available and what is the last or most recent year available (in this case PRO 1987 is the first and PRO 1991, the last).
After it has located all the files, it will open the latest file or the one you have selected and read the data for that year. During the course of the application, it will access the previous years’ files for the past performance statistics.
Each PRO file is a complete file for that year and is independent of the others. You can, if you like, take a step back into the past by opening a previous year’s files and see what happened during the course of that season. PRO Predictor will load the file and then treat it as if it were the current season.
When PRO Predictor begins, it displays an About Pro Predictor screen while it is searching for its files and loading the data. As soon as it’s ready to begin, the About screen will be replaced by one with a Road to the Super Bowl logo (the logo for black and white monitors differs from the logo for color). This is the home screen. Whenever you select one of the Menu items, the logo screen will be replaced by the window for the particular routine you have chosen. Once you exit the routine the home screen reappears. So, whenever you see the logo, you will know you are back to the main Menu. I always included a home screen in my applications, because I am particularly irritated by applications that don’t let me know where I am within the application.
• Try out the various menu items from the View Menu on.
Most of the statistical information is accessible through the items in the View Menu. However, don’t overlook the NFC, AFC, This Week, and Next Week menus. Even though these menus seem to be merely lists, selecting an item in the list gives you additional information about that item.
With the exception of Print Windows and and Preferences, the items in the File Menu are the standard File items.
Print
You can get a hard copy of the standings, schedules, etc.. Once you have selected one of the menu items, you’ll be asked to enter the range of weeks to be printed. For example, you can choose to print out a single week’s schedule or the weekly schedule for a range of several weeks, or the entire season.
Print Windows
This is for printing the data from the window or windows that are currently appearing on the screen. With multiple windows events, such as Best to Worst, Team Stats, etc. where there can be multiple windows opened at the same time, Print Windows will print all the open windows. Before you select Print Windows, choose the windows you want to be printed by leaving them open, and conversely, the ones you do not want printed by closing them.
Preferences:Track Last Weeks
Some of the view windows have a column that shows team records for the last 3 weeks. You can change this anytime to the number of weeks you would like (up to 10).
Preferences:Track Last Years
This sets the number of years that are used in totaling past performances, which is used extensively in the view routines. Its default setting is 3. You may wish to change this when you register and receive additional archive files.
Preferences:List Outright Predictions by:
You can have the Weekly predictions for outright winners listed according to game order in the week's schedule or by point spred, with the most likely winners listed first.
The name of this Menu is always the name of the file that is currently in memory and focuses upon routines for entering or altering data. Most of the routines in this menu are the standard entering and correcting procedures. However, the Yardage Entries and Alter Power need further explanation.
Enter Yardage Stats
Entering yardage stats is purely optional and does not affect Pro Predictor's predictions. It is included only because I like to keep track of the teams’ offensive and defensive strengths and weaknesses as revealed by the yardage stats. I added this routine to PRO Predictor in 1989, so the yardage stats are not included for the years prior to 1989.
(Entering yardage is really not as difficult as it would seem. The options make it seem more complex than it is. You may wonder, “Why enter the total yards when it is already in the paper?” Well, as you’ll see the View Yardage Menu has more options for juggling the yardage stats than appear in the paper. Also, you will have a permanent record for later viewing, whereas newspaper are usually thrown away.)
You cannot enter the yardage stats before you enter the week’s scores. Therefore the Enter Yardage Stats are always for the week of the last scores entered. Once you have entered the yardage stats for that week, Enter Yardage Stats will be dimmed until you’ve entered the next week’s scores.
Unlike the scores, you do not have to enter these weekly. If you skip a few weeks, and then decide to enter the yards, you will be alerted that your entry must be the totals through that week.
The yardage stats include: the number of running plays, running yards, the number of pass attempts, passes completed, and passing yards. Most newspapers and football magazines such as PRO Football Weekly print game statistics which contain the needed yardage stats which you can use for entering the yards on a weekly basis. They also print the total yard stats weekly. You can use those to update the total yards.
If you’re entering the yardage weekly, you need enter only the offensive yardage for each team in each game. PRO Predictor knows that the visiting team’s offensive yard stats are the home team’s defensive yard stats and vice versa. The window for entering weekly yards groups the teams by games. For example, Miami/NY Jets or Cleveland/Pittsburgh. Therefore, when you enter Miami’s offensive yardage you are also entering the Jets’ defensive yardage.
If you’re entering total yards, you’ll have a different window. The groupings will be Cincinnati/Opponents or Indianapolis/Opponents. Enter the team’s offensive yardage in the team’s edit boxes and the defensive yardage in the Opponents’ edit boxes.
A further note: if you fail to enter the yardage for a week or two and still want to enter the stats as a weekly entry, you have the option of going back and entering them.
Alter Team Power
Power Ratings are the heart of Pro Predictor. How well it maintains each team’s Power Points determines how successful it will be in predicting. The Power Points are dynamic. They are based upon how well a team has done against its opponents and how strong those opponent are and are readjusted after each week’s scores have been entered. Each point of difference between two teams’ Power Points represents a point on the scoreboard.
At the beginning of the season, except for the *Super Bowl participants, each team’s power rating is the same as it was at the end of the previous season. PRO Predictor adjusts the power ratings as the season progresses. However, its adjustments are rather conservative, so it may take a few weeks before it has properly adjusted the power ratings.
You may feel that some teams have either improved or deteriorated considerably during the off-season and may want to adjust their power ratings right away. You have to enter the starting week and then the number of points to add or subtract. For the beginning of the season, indicate week 0. A range of 2 to 5 points is probably best.
You may also wish to change a team's power rating during the course of the season when a major injury occurs, especially to the starting quarterback. For an outstanding quarterback enter -5. You should also
add the points back when the injured player returns.
Should your changes prove incorrect, they may affect the prediction accuracy for a few weeks but PRO Predictor will eventually adjust them to where they should be.
*An analysis of Super Bowl winners since 1983 indicates that with the exception of San Francisco in 1989, Super Bowl winners have a rough time of it the next year. Although the losers fair better than the winners the following year, they seldom are as good as they were their Super Bowl year. So, through experimenting for better prediction results, PRO Predictor has determined that Super Bowl winners should be downgraded by 5 Power points and the losers by 3. If you think this year is an exception, change them back by altering the Power Point by +3 to the Super Bowl loser and +5 to the Super Bowl winner.
When you select one of the view routines, it may seem that the choice for the initial week displayed has neither rhyme nor reason. Well, actually it does. Whenever, you choose one of these routines, the week being displayed when you exit the routine becomes the view week. Then, if you choose another view routine, it will begin with that week. This is so you don’t have to reset the week when you’re checking out a specific week through several view routines.
To exit any of the following routines, click the close box or move the arrow outside the window and click, or choose another Menu item.
There are three items in the View Menu that I want to call to your attention: Power Ratings, Future Predictions, View Yardage.
Power Ratings
Check the Power Points each week to see how various teams are doing. But, don’t expect dramatic changes over the span of a week or two. Pro Predictor doesn’t over-react to upsets. Before a team’s Power Points are dramatically raised, it has to prove that a win over a supposedly stronger team was no fluke.
In adjusting the power ratings each week, there are several factors that PRO Predictor takes into account:
• Home field advantage. Whether the team was playing at home or on the road has to be factored in.
• One game does not a contender make. Phoenix 45, NY Giants 0 does not mean that Phoenix is going to the Super Bowl or that the Giants will not win another game! Therefore, each team’s power rating is averaged out over a period of weeks.
Notice that Buffalo and Washington have asterisks, with the explanation at the bottom that they were in the last year’s Super Bowl. This isn’t done so you’ll know who was in the Super Bowl, but instead to explain why their Power Points are so low. Since Buffalo was the loser, its Power Points have been downgraded by 3, and Washington’s, the winners, by 5.
An analysis of Super Bowl winners since 1983 indicates that with the exception of San Francisco in 1989, Super Bowl winners have a rough time of it the next year. Although the losers fair better than the winners the following year, they seldom are as good as they were their Super Bowl year. So, through experimenting for better prediction results, Pro Predictor has determined that Super Bowl winners should be downgraded by 5 Power Points and the losers by 3.
Future Projections
Here’s where you can do all sorts of interesting things. Want to know who’s going to the play-offs and who’s going to the Super Bowl? Or, maybe you want to know who’ll be ahead at the end of the seventh week.
Before you try this, let me explain what it does. First, it checks to see if you have made any changes, such as entering or correcting scores. If you have, you’ll be given the usual Save Warning. Be sure to save your changes or they’ll be lost. From the current file, it creates a new file called Projection (and the year).
Next, you’ll be asked to select the beginning and ending weeks. For the beginning week, you’ll probably want to start with the first week that has no scores (at the beginning of the season this would be week 1, of course) but you can select any prior week, if you like. If you select a beginning week that already has the scores in, Projection will discard those and any subsequent scores and put in its own projected scores into the Projection file.
The ending week can be the same as the beginning week (if you only want to project one week ahead) or any other week up to and including the Super Bowl week (week #21).
If you want to create a Projection file from the current PRO file without any projections, enter 0 as both the beginning and ending week.
Before PRO Predictor begins its projections, you’ll next be asked if you want to follow each week’s update. If you choose to do so, PRO Predictor will show you the results for each week and the standings for each week, sort of like rushing through the season in a time-lapse mode. If you choose not to follow each week’s update, PRO Predictor will work in the background until it gets to the ending week. It will then display the standings for that week and then return to home screen.
If the ending week is greater than the regular season, when PRO Predictor gets to the last week of the regular season, it steps through the rest of the season with you so you can see the play-off teams and the results of each play-off game.
In creating the Projection file, PRO Predictor takes the predictions for each week and enters them as the scores for that week, as if they were the actual scores. It then updates the standings, team stats, etc. It’s as if you had entered the scores week to week. When it has finished, the Projection file is just like the PRO files, except the scores are projected scores.
You may use any of the Menu commands, just like you do with a PRO file. You can view the standings for any week, the team stats, the Best to Worst, or anything else you want to see. Also, you can change scores or alter team power.
Projections for an entire seasons or even several weeks ahead is purely speculative, of course, because so many things can happen. But it does have some value if you take it for what it’s worth. Remember, in making its projections PRO Predictor MUST assume that each team will win when it is supposed to and lose when it is supposed to. Then, why does a team that is rated higher than another have a poorer record? It’s the schedule! Not only is a team’s record affected by the calibre of teams it plays but WHERE it plays them. Two comparable teams with the same relative difficulty of schedule may have completely different records. It may be one team’s misfortune to play most of its tough opponents on the road. In essence, then, the projections are PRO Predictor’s estimate of which teams have the BEST CHANCE of making the play-offs and which team has the BEST CHANCE of winning the Super Bowl.
A Projection file cannot affect any PRO data file. Once you have the Projection file, experiment. You can do whatever you like and feel safe, knowing that the Projection file is a separate “fantasy file” that will not change any data in the real PRO files. It’s great for doing “What if’s” and “If only’s” to see how things will turn out. Try changing the scores in a critical game to see how it might affect the division race. For example, Minnesota is picked to win the game against Green Bay. What if Green Bay wins? Change the score and see!
Try changing the power ratings for the beginning of the season (power ratings will not change from the beginning week to the ending week in a Projection file because each team is doing exactly what it is expected to do!) Perhaps, Dallas is underrated. Change its power rating to what you think it should be.
Now, do a Projection file from the Projection file. (Yes, you can create a Projection file from within another and a Projection file within that Projection file, etc.. However, you can save only one of them to disk since they will all have the same name.) There’s no need to save it since you can easily redo it later from the PRO file. Set the beginning week to 1 and the ending week to 17 and see what has changed. Did Dallas make the play-offs?
Use Future Projections as a look-ahead. Suppose it’s week 17. Chicago is 11-4 and Minnesota is 10-5. If Chicago loses and Minnesota wins, who will be the Division Winner? Do a Future Projection for week 17 only. Correct the scores if necessary and then check the Standings from the View Menu and you’ll see the Division Winner. (The Playoff Standings will tell you why.)
Get the idea? Try anything. There’s no harm done and if you botch it all up, just discard the Projection file and start over. All this won’t get your team to the Super Bowl, but you can sure have fun trying! Believe me, I’ve tried! Well, maybe this year...
If you like, you can save the Projection file and open it later just as you do with the PRO files.
At the end of the season, you might like to see how close PRO Predictor came to predicting the Super Bowl winner. From PRO 1991,(or PRO 1990, if you want to see how it did last year) select Future Projections, enter 1 as the beginning week and 21 as the ending week. The results will be the same as a Projection File done at the beginning of the season.
The beginning week sets the starting point for Future Projections. It uses data for the weeks prior to the beginning week and discards all subsequent data. If you choose week #1 as the beginning week, as far as Future Projections is concerned, it’s the beginning of the season. If you choose week #9, to Future Projections, only 8 weeks have been played.
After you have seen it predictions from week #1, choose Undo Changes from the File Menu, and repeat the process, but this time enter week #9 as the beginning week. Is it more accurate?
Set Yardage Rankings
If the yardage has not been entered, this will be dimmed.
Choose the type of ranking you want before choosing View Yardage by. There are three methods for ranking the team by their yardage stats:
by Average: Teams whose averages are higher will be ranked first. For example, the team who averages the highest rushing stats per play will be ranked first.
by Yards: The teams will be ranked by the total yards, regardless of their average per play.
by Plays: The teams will be ranked by the number of plays in each category.
View Yardage by
If the yardage has not been entered, this will be dimmed.
The yardage stats are broken down into the following categories: Pass Completion Percentage, Passing Yards, Rushing Yards, and Total Yards. Both offensive and defensive stats are included for each category. There are three ways of viewing the teams yardage stats:
by Totals of Games Played: Here, total yards are used. If teams have played an unequal number of games, these rankings can be misleading.
by Per Game Average: The yards are averaged out per game. This is a more accurate way of ranking teams when an unequal number of games have been played.
by Offense Vs. Defense: Each team’s offensive yards are compared to its defensive yards.
Try each to see the difference.
These are the same, except the NFC Menu is an alphabetical listing of the NFC conference teams and their current record (or last year’s until the first scores are in) and the AFC Menu does the same with the AFC.
Use these to check each team’s current record or select any team, and a window will open with that team’s records statistics, both past and present. The team’s won-lost records are broken down into various categories, such as league, division, home, road, etc.. The team’s record against the other teams is also included. The listing on the left is for the current year, and the one on the right is for the archive years.
You may have up to 10 windows open at the same time.
The Week #(current week) Menu lists the results of the games played that week with the home team in upper case letters. The Next Week Menu lists the games scheduled for the next week.
Use these to get a quick listing of the previous week’s results or the next week’s schedule. If you choose one of the games from either menu, a game comparison window will open. In each case, the two teams are compared statistically.
Since there are no scores for 1992, the final results of 1991 for the two teams are used for comparison of past performances. Once you have entered scores for week #1, this will change to the 1992 records. If it is a conference game, each team’s conference record is included. If it is an inter-conference game, then the inter-conference records are used, or if it is a division game, the division records are used. The visiting team’s road records is included since they are the road team, and the host team’s home records is included since they are the home team.
Each team has two groups of records. First, this year’s records (or last year’s records if no scores are in) and, then, the archive years’ records. The records are for regular season games only. These are followed by the previous games between the two over the last five years. (If you have those years on your disk.)
In the early stages of a season, the records for this year may not be of much value. In that case, you may want to use the teams’ records for a year or two ago. To do so: Close the game comparison window(s). Set that number of years to track in Preferences under the File Menu. Choose the game again from the Next Week Menu and then use the archive years’ records as indicators.
Use the Game Window stats to fine tune your picks in close games or to predict possible upsets.
You may have up to 10 windows open at the same time. Use the same procedures as outlined above for the team schedule windows.
